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Forecasting the effects of vaccination on the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia using SEIRV compartmental models
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Mei Cheng Lim, Sarbhan Singh, Chee Herng Lai, Balvinder Singh Gill, Mohd Kamarulariffin Kamarudin, Ahmed Syahmi Syafiq Md Zamri, Cia Vei Tan, Asrul Anuar Zulkifli, Mohamad Nadzmi Md Nadzri, Nur'ain Mohd Ghazali, Sumarni Mohd Ghazali, Nuur Hafizah Md Iderus, Nur Ar Rabiah Binti Ahmad, Jeyanthi Suppiah, Kok Keng Tee, Tahir Aris, Lonny Chen Rong Qi Ahmad
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Epidemiol Health. 2023;45:e2023093. Published online October 17, 2023
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2023093
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 Abstract
Summary
 PDF Supplementary Material
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES
This study aimed to develop susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-vaccinated (SEIRV) models to examine the effects of vaccination on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case trends in Malaysia during Phase 3 of the National COVID-19 Immunization Program amidst the Delta outbreak.
METHODS SEIRV models were developed and validated using COVID-19 case and vaccination data from the Ministry of Health, Malaysia, from June 21, 2021 to July 21, 2021 to generate forecasts of COVID-19 cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Three scenarios were examined to measure the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 case trends. Scenarios 1 and 2 represented the trends taking into account the earliest and latest possible times of achieving full vaccination for 80% of the adult population by October 31, 2021 and December 31, 2021, respectively. Scenario 3 described a scenario without vaccination for comparison.
RESULTS In scenario 1, forecasted cases peaked on August 28, 2021, which was close to the peak of observed cases on August 26, 2021. The observed peak was 20.27% higher than in scenario 1 and 10.37% lower than in scenario 2. The cumulative observed cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021 were 13.29% higher than in scenario 1 and 55.19% lower than in scenario 2. The daily COVID-19 case trends closely mirrored the forecast of COVID-19 cases in scenario 1 (best-case scenario).
CONCLUSIONS Our study demonstrated that COVID-19 vaccination reduced COVID-19 case trends during the Delta outbreak. The compartmental models developed assisted in the management and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia.
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Summary
Key Message
The effectiveness of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination against the highly transmissible Delta variant remained uncertain during the initial phase of the Delta outbreak in Malaysia. The innovative use of compartmental models provided scientific evidence of the potential impact of COVID-19 vaccination in reducing COVID-19 case trends based on local epidemiological data and offered forecasts of COVID-19 case trends based on varying vaccination rates which assisted resource planning and enhanced healthcare system preparedness. This evidence played a crucial role in bolstering public confidence in vaccination efforts and assisted in the control and management of the pandemic.
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